Grains gain on demand optimism
***** Corn up 2 to 2 1/2 cents at the break; soybeans higher by 8 3/4 to 9 1/4; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer. *****

#Grains are mixed in the early going with corn and wheat attempting a recovery. Soybeans have turned active late in the overnight trade with gains to show for it. A favorable forecast leans positive yield potential, negative price. General optimism over strong grain demand is a positive. Outside markets are supportive this morning after having taken on a defensive tone through the recent several sessions.
#News broke that the Argentine government has suspended its soy export tax cut program. Argie President Macri had about a year ago started to lower export taxes gradually, but pressure on him to control spending has caused him to step back on the promise of further cuts.
#A rain front currently moves across southern Missouri. The 6-10 day forecast has a trough system moving into the Midwest to bring wetter weather early in the outlook period, this coming after a round of showers expected to start popping up on Wednesday.
#Drought still firmly grips much of the Southern Plains and American West. An estimated 30 percent of national pasture and range lands are tagged to be in Poor or Very Poor condition.
#Grain futures find some support from Mondays Progress report showing deteriorated condition ratings for U.S. corn and soybean crops. Corn fell one point to 70 percent Good/Excellent, soybeans down one point to 66 percent G/E. Fallen condition ratings did not come as a complete surprise after a dry week for most and they will have a chance to rebound after what looks like a wet week this week.
#Top-importer Egypt is tendering for wheat this week, looking to purchase twice the normal three or four cargoes. The Black Sea shippers are Egypts recent supplier of choice, but prices in Russia, Romania, and Ukraine have risen sharply in recent weeks due to drought-reduced harvests and quality concerns.
#USDAs Cash Grain Prices report listed the central Illinois producer basis averages for Monday afternoon at 35 1/2 cents under September futures for corn and 52 1/2 cents under the November for soybeans. The Interior Iowa averages were 40 and 73 cents under for corn and soybeans, respectively.
#December corn futures are headed back toward a test of newly-reinstated resistance from the 20- and 50-day moving averages. The contract needs to have an up day or two to avoid a bearish zero-line crossover for the MACD. November soybeans held ahead of $8.50 on Monday to install that sessions low at $8.51 1/4 as a first point of support. SX18 started lower overnight but buyers havent let it drop below its daily pivot yet.
#The lira currency is bouncing some this morning, but Turkeys President Erdogan remains defiant against U.S. calls to release a detained U.S. pastor accused of espionage. President Trump has approved the blocking of Turkeys access to F-35 fighter jets while Turkeys president has announced that he will restrict the import of U.S. electronic goods.

***** Livestock futures open to a better start with help from supportive outside market action. *****

#Cattle futures will look for guidance from the wholesale market today. The board corrected lower on Monday to reflect a weaker cash trade from late Friday, but boxed beef prices were able to make sharp gains to put to question whether or not cash markets can bounce back this week.
#Since closing limit higher last Thursday, Hog futures have spent two sessions displaying early strength that fizzles into the close. Technical traders are supporting the October at its 20-day moving average but are also quick to sell at the upper Bollinger Band.