Grains Report 03/19/19

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 18
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 14, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/14/2019 03/07/2019 03/15/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 73 0 245 7,047 21,071
CORN 795,241 803,351 1,439,155 27,396,964 21,793,321
FLAXSEED 24 0 0 366 4,745
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 100 0 2,093 11,581
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 25,064 64,110 252,524 974,198 3,534,319
SOYBEANS 841,888 887,760 500,452 27,688,349 40,230,755
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 353,727 611,955 444,806 17,975,835 19,156,627
Total 2,016,017 2,367,276 2,637,182 74,044,852 84,752,443
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were a little lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices closed higher. Chicago SRW prices are now challenging important resistance on the weekly charts at 464.25 May, and breaking and holding above that level would encourage a lot of fund buying. Bullish traders could not get the job done yesterday, but could try again later this week. The market seems to have bottomed out. Demand overall has been improving for US Wheat in export markets, but demand took a couple of hits last week as the weekly sales report was not strong and wire services noted new sales from Russia into Asia, a market that the Americans had been expected to supply at this time this year. There are also concerns about production for the coming year due to bad planting conditions in the Fall and the potential for Winter kill from the extreme cold seen in the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains after the first of the year. Prices are cheap enough now that some cattle producers in the central and southern Great Plains might use the Wheat area for grazing instead of for cash crops. Prices are very high in the region right now for feed, so grazing the Wheat might make more economic sense. Minneapolis prices Have been holding better as the market waits for Spring to arrive. The big Winter storm in the Dakotas and other areas last week has given way to improving weather this week. The region will need a lot of good weather before planting can begin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get drier weather, but some light precipitation is possible tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 453, 447, and 442 May, with resistance at 464, 465, and 475 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 433, 427, and 418 May, with resistance at 446, 448, and 453 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 576 and 594 May. Support is at 558, 553, and 548 May, and resistance is at 566, 572, and 577 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly lower in low volume trading. It seems that all participants are waiting for a new reason to buy or sell. Planting conditions are expected to improve this week near the Gulf Coast and in the Delta. All areas have seen some extreme precipitation and mostly cool to cold temperatures for the last month, and getting much fieldwork done has been all but impossible. However, some small areas in Texas and Louisiana have been planted, and areas near Houston are planting now. The better weather is timely as producers were starting to get worried and some were wondering if they would be able to plant Rice. The planting will be on time or only slightly delayed if favorable weather continues. Farmers have mostly sold the Rice in the south, but there is still a lot to sell in Arkansas and into Missouri and Mississippi. US export demand overall has been positive for the market. The US has Rice to sell, but the Rice is getting sold and exported. Domestic demand has been moderate. US internal prices are holding about steady. Prices in Asian export markets were steady to higher last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get drier weather, but showers are possible today and next week. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1064, 1059, and 1048 May, with resistance at 1086, 1088, and 1097 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday in sympathy with the weakness in Soybeans and Wheat. The South China Post said yesterday that Chinese authorities do not expect a trade agreement now before June. The US had been talking about April last week. Ideas are that China would buy some significant amounts of Corn as they would be committing to buy a huge amount of US agricultural goods. South American weather is generally good as more showers are reported in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. US farmers are still trying to decide on their planting mix this year. Corn planting should be starting in areas near the Gulf Coast, but fieldwork in many cases has been delayed by excessive rains in the past few weeks. Much of the US will have a drier week this week, and this will be a very welcome development in all areas. There has been way too much rain and snow this year for any fieldwork to be considered.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 366, 361, and 360 May, and resistance is at 375, 376, and 380 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 287 May. Support is at 273, 270, and 265 May, and resistance is at 282, 285, and 290 May.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but Soybean Oil closed unchanged to higher. The US government says it still expects to have an agreement, but a signing ceremony by the end of April is an open question as the Chinese side told the South China Post that it could take until June to negotiate all of the outstanding issues. The US Government said yesterday that there are no meetings planned for this month between the two presidents, but had talked about a signing ceremony in April. Brazil is still very active with its harvest and should continue to show increased offers and very competitive prices. The harvest has been slower due to rains, but the pace is still good overall. Argentina also looks to export this year as crops there are much better. Ideas are that the US export sales pace will fall seasonally in the near term. The weather in the US is very cold in the north and very wet in the south. A major storm moved through the Great Plains and Midwest last week and brought extreme amounts of snow and rain and wind. Flooding is widespread in Nebraska and Iowa and is expected in the Dakotas and Minnesota and Wisconsin as the snows there melt. Much calmer weather is expected for the next week as it should be dry and turn warmer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 926 and 946 May. Support is at 892, 888, and 885 May, and resistance is at 911, 913, and 924 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 314.00 and 321.00 May. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 301.00 May, and resistance is at 313.00, 315.00, and 318.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2740 May. Support is at 2930, 2890, and 2870 May, with resistance at 2970, 3010, and 3030 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on what appeared to be speculative and fund short covering. Futures made new highs for the move. The market rallied along with Chicago, but Canola traders are still worried about big supplies in the Prairies and a lack of demand from China. The market has stopped going down and appears to be forming a bottom at this time. Palm Oil was slightly higher on the outside markets. Futures are reacting to the sharp drop in Indian demand. The market moved to new contract lows again. Weaker outside markets were negative, too. There is talk that February production will be stronger than expected. Short term trends remain are turning up in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 475.00 and 491.00 May. Support is at 459.00, 457.00, and 454.00 March, with resistance at 470.00, 474.00, and 480.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2020 and 1920 May. Support is at 2080, 2060, and 2030 May, with resistance at 2130, 2160, and 2180 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry for the next week, but light precipitation is possible tomorrow and rain is possible next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 53 May 160 May 86 May 49 May Price
April 53 May 90 May 39 May
May 52 May 90 May 39 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
March
April 43 May -17 May
May 58 May -18 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 18
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, March 18 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the
closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.

Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 448.80 dn 2.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 479.30 up 1.50
2 Can 466.30 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 491.30 up 1.50
2 Can 478.30 up 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 530.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 562.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Apr 525.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
May 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 540.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 567.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 510.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded Apr
Apr 475.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,010 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 146 +03 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0720)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 168,050 lots, or 5.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 3,398 3,401 3,372 3,381 3,425 3,387 -38 140,478 150,962
Jul-19 3,473 3,473 3,458 3,458 3,490 3,467 -23 26 178
Sep-19 3,482 3,486 3,460 3,465 3,498 3,474 -24 24,450 46,654
Nov-19 – – – 3,437 3,437 3,437 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,391 3,395 3,385 3,387 3,399 3,390 -9 3,096 25,502
Mar-20 – – – 3,382 3,382 3,382 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 580,118 lots, or 10.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 1,859 1,859 1,847 1,850 1,851 1,852 1 290,638 1,017,044
Jul-19 1,876 1,876 1,863 1,866 1,867 1,869 2 51,988 168,898
Sep-19 1,895 1,896 1,881 1,886 1,886 1,886 0 193,916 773,342
Nov-19 1,918 1,918 1,908 1,911 1,910 1,914 4 654 1,864
Jan-20 1,941 1,954 1,935 1,940 1,935 1,944 9 42,890 81,470
Mar-20 1,942 1,952 1,940 1,944 1,947 1,944 -3 32 30
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,693,918 lots, or 43.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 2,552 2,566 2,531 2,539 2,559 2,552 -7 1,186,084 1,639,760
Jul-19 2,573 2,585 2,558 2,569 2,578 2,579 1 81,494 147,142
Aug-19 2,608 2,608 2,608 2,608 2,608 2,608 0 6 222
Sep-19 2,615 2,626 2,596 2,604 2,616 2,612 -4 397,778 1,214,276
Nov-19 2,641 2,645 2,623 2,623 2,637 2,636 -1 208 3,408
Dec-19 – – – 2,681 2,681 2,681 0 0 236
Jan-20 2,685 2,701 2,677 2,681 2,686 2,687 1 28,304 105,340
Mar-20 2,697 2,708 2,687 2,687 2,688 2,695 7 44 152
Palm Oil
Turnover: 457,480 lots, or 20.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-19 – – – 4,600 4,600 4,600 0 0 2
May-19 4,462 4,466 4,432 4,438 4,460 4,444 -16 368,062 615,926
Jun-19 4,716 4,716 4,648 4,648 4,696 4,682 -14 84 52
Jul-19 – – – 4,664 4,664 4,664 0 0 28
Aug-19 – – – 4,644 4,644 4,644 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,730 4,732 4,708 4,718 4,716 4,718 2 81,206 234,808
Oct-19 – – – 4,726 4,726 4,726 0 0 6
Nov-19 – – – 4,838 4,836 4,838 2 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,984 4,984 4,984 0 0 100
Jan-20 4,808 4,816 4,790 4,792 4,802 4,798 -4 8,128 41,852
Feb-20 – – – 4,878 4,882 4,878 -4 0 0
Mar-20 – – – 4,862 4,862 4,862 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 332,636 lots, or 18.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-19 5,564 5,568 5,520 5,524 5,560 5,536 -24 226,936 533,422
Jul-19 5,632 5,632 5,632 5,632 5,674 5,632 -42 2 14
Aug-19 – – – 5,672 5,714 5,672 -42 0 2
Sep-19 5,710 5,722 5,682 5,688 5,706 5,700 -6 101,452 376,162
Nov-19 – – – 5,826 5,832 5,826 -6 0 2
Dec-19 – – – 5,878 5,884 5,878 -6 0 10
Jan-20 5,814 5,848 5,800 5,800 5,814 5,812 -2 4,246 40,638
Mar-20 – – – 5,854 5,854 5,854 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.