AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the week with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher on Friday. Nearby September was up 4.1% since last Friday, with higher closes every day this week. Solid exports and drier weather fueled some bottom picking and short covering action. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding another 24,947 contracts to their net short position. That net position stood at -129,323 contracts as of Tuesday. China sold another 1.102 MMT of corn from state reserves at an auction of state reserves on Friday, totaling 28.29% of the offered amount.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.55 1/4, up 4 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.69, up 4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.80, up 3 1/2 cents

May 19 Corn closed at $3.86 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures ended Friday with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher, shrugging off pressure from more belligerent trade talk. August was up 3.79% on a week that saw only higher daily closes. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 39 points higher. A report after the close had Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating the US is ready to make a trade deal with China if they were sincere on making changes. The 6-10 day outlook is showing forecasts for cooler and drier weather for much of the Midwest. Money managers in soybean futures and options added another 5,152 contracts to their net short position as of July 17 to -58,399 contracts.

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $8.49 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.55 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.64 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83 3/4, up 3 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal closed at $326.90, down $1.90,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.22, up $0.39

Wheat

Wheat futures posted 11 to 12 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday. MPLS was the leader, up 16 to 18 1/4 cents. The US dollar provided support, down 700 points on the day. On the week, September saw gains of 3.82% in CBT, with KC up 3.41% and MPLS 4.37% higher. Spec funds in CBT wheat futures and options flipped to a net long position of 3,557 contracts in the week that ended on Tuesday. They were net long 17,928 contracts in KC wheat. Taiwan is seeking 102,775 MT of US wheat in a tender that will close next Thursday. Japan has lifted the temporary ban on Canadian wheat imports following last month’s discovery of some GMO wheat in Canada.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16, up 11 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.08 1/2, up 12 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.55, up 18 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures saw losses of 10 to 40 cents in most contracts on Friday. Nearby was Aug up 2.5 cents on the day and 4.18% higher on the week. Feeder cattle futures were down a nickel to 77.5 cents on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 29 cents from the previous day at $148.02 on 7/19. Estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 635,000 head through Saturday. That is up 17,000 from the same week last year but down 15,000 head vs. last week. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 32 cents to $204.17, while Select boxes were 8 cents higher at $197.00. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements 1.3% higher than last year at 1.793 million head, with marketings at 2.006 million head, up 0.85%. July cattle on feed was shown at a record for the month at 11.282 million head, up 4.26% from last year. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report saw all cattle and calves 1% larger than last July 1 at 103.2 million head. Beef cows were up 0.9% with replacement heifers down 2.1% at 4.6 million head. Light cash trade is being picked up at $113 in NE on Friday afternoon, with $113 bids in TX.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $108.925, up $0.025,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $110.250, down $0.400,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $114.200, down $0.225,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $153.675, down $0.775

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.550, down $0.225

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.775, down $0.150

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with 80 cent to $1.275 losses in most contracts on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 53 cents on July 18, to $78.62. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.83 on Friday afternoon at $80.86. The belly led the way, down $11.60, with the butt, rib, and ham following. The national base carcass price was $68.07 in the Friday PM report, down $1.18 from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.382 million head through Saturday. That is 179,000 head above last year, and up 107,000 head from the week previous on huge Saturday slaughter.

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $66.450, down $0.800,

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $51.275, down $0.950

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $45.925, down $0.950

Cotton

Cotton futures were down 40 to 56 points in the front months on Friday. Sharp losses in the US dollar were offset by more trade news. President Trump is contemplating adding tariffs on the full $500 billion in Chinese goods the US purchases annually because of a lack of progress in negotiations, though no plan was laid out. Thursday’s Cotton on Call report showed mills increasing their unfixed call sales position for December by 562 contracts to 52,774 contracts as of 7/13. The Cotlook A index was down 25 points from the previous day at 97.95 cents/lb on July 18. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 79.50 cents/lb, up 333 points from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 87.740, down 56 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 87.080, down 47 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 86.960, down 47 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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